If 2025 was the year of stabilization, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of infrastructure. As we look at the macro trends driving the market, a clear message is emerging: we are entering a cycle defined by massive capital expenditure, distinct winners in the asset class, and a rate environment that demands spending discipline.
At Dolfin, we are closely monitoring how these macro shifts will trickle down to the individual tenant and landlord. Here is our outlook on the convergence of Capital Expenditures (CapEx) and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) for 2026.
The “Winner-Takes-All” Economy
The broader market sentiment for 2026 suggests a continuation of the momentum we saw last year. However, the dispersion between high-performing assets and the rest of the pack is widening.
According to J.P. Morgan Global Research , the market dynamic in 2026 will likely feature “new extremes in crowding, record concentration and a ‘winner-takes-all’ dynamic”.
This isn’t just a stock market phenomenon; it applies directly to physical assets. The properties and companies that receive investment will thrive, while those that defer CapEx risk irrelevance.
The $500 Billion Infrastructure Buildout
The primary engine of this growth is no longer just tech, it is physical infrastructure. The demand for computing power is driving a historic construction boom that requires massive amounts of funding from both public and private credit markets.
Projections highlighted by Yahoo Finance indicate that global AI-related CapEx is set to “exceed $500 billion, reflecting an ongoing, multi-year infrastructure buildout”.
This spending is spilling over into real estate. Global data center construction may require significant amounts of funding from alternative private credit sources. For landlords, proximity to power and digital infrastructure is becoming a new valuation metric.
Liquidity vs. Rates: The Balancing Act
For borrowers, the picture is mixed. On one hand, there is capital in the system. As noted in the major investment themes for the year, large fiscal deficits suggest that “policy is biased toward keeping financial conditions loose,” supporting risk assets.
However, “loose” does not mean cheap or affordable. It seems that the days of near-zero interest rates will not return anytime soon. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts that 10-year Treasury yields could “grind higher over the course of 2026,” potentially reaching 4.35% by the end of the year.
This reality was highlighted by Kurt Stuart, Co-Head of Commercial Term Lending at Chase, who noted that the slowdown in construction “hasn’t solely been tariffs… It has been interest rates”.
For 2026, this means projects must have strong fundamentals to pencil out. Capital is available, but the cost of that capital requires rigorous underwriting, staying keen to future treasury yields this year.
The Office Bifurcation: Obsolescence or Opportunity?
Perhaps nowhere is the winner-takes-all dynamic more visible than in the office sector. The narrative that “office is dead” is being replaced by a more nuanced reality: obsolete office is dead.
Cushman & Wakefield reports that the market is finding its footing, noting that “office sales have surged 52% from their trough” while vacant sublease inventory has declined significantly.
However, Burke Davis, Head of Real Estate Banking at J.P. Morgan , draws a sharp line in the sand explaining, “High-quality office space has good demand… Lower quality space is at risk of obsolescence”.
This leaves landlords with two choices: invest heavily in upgrades to compete for high-quality tenants, or face the CapEx heavy-lift of repurposing buildings for different uses entirely.
The Dolfin View
As we move into 2026, S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow “10.8% in 2026, up from 8.3% in 2025,” according to market analysis. Corporate tenants are growing, and they are spending.
For landlords and investors, capturing this growth requires a willingness to invest in the physical office space itself. Whether it is fitting out a modern office to attract top talent, or upgrading infrastructure to support AI demands, CapEx is the main differentiator between success and failure. In a market defined by high costs but abundant opportunity, flexible, structured financing will be the key to unlocking value.
Don’t let liquidity constraints stall your growth. If you need a structured solution to close the gap between your 2026 infrastructure goals and your capital budget, reach out to see how Dolfin can help.
